Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

superforecasting ebok science epub prediction pdf Superforecasting The book Art and ebok Art and Science of pdf The Art and kindle The Art and Science of free Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookTter than chance However an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why What makes some people so good And can this talent be taught   In Superforecasting Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction drawing on decades of research and the results of The Art and ePUB a massive government funded forecasting tournament The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker a retired pipe installer and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good They’ve beaten other benchmarks competitors and prediction markets They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified inf.

Tter than chance However an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why What makes some people so good And can this talent be taught   In Superforecasting Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction drawing on decades of research and the results of The Art and ePUB a massive government funded forecasting tournament The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker a retired pipe installer and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good They’ve beaten other benchmarks competitors and prediction markets They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified inf.

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

❰Epub❯ ❤ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Author Philip E. Tetlock – Pnoy.me A  New York Times BestsellerAn  Economist Best Book of 2015The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's  Thinking Fast and Slow—Jason Zweig  The Wall Street Journal   EvEpub Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Author Philip E. Tetlock Pnoy.me A  New York Times BestsellerAn  Economist Best Book of 2015The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's  Thinking Fast and Slow—Jason Zweig  The Wall Street Journal   Ev A  New York Times BestsellerAn  Economist Best Art and PDF Book of The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's  Thinking Fast and Slow—Jason Zweig  The Wall Street Journal   Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future whether buying stocks crafting policy launching a new product or simply planning the week’s meals Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark study even Superforecasting: The Epub / experts’ predictions are only slightly be.

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction .

10 thoughts on “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

  1. Yannick Serres Yannick Serres says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction superforecasting ebok, science epub, prediction pdf, Superforecasting The book, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and kindle, The Art and Science of free, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookDuring the first hundred pages I was sure to give the book a perfect score It totally caught my attention and made me want and The book made me feel like it had been written for me someone that don't know much about predictions and forecasts but feels like he could be good at itThen after the half of the book you get a little bored because it always come back to the same thing Use number to make your predictions in a well established timeframe always uestion your p


  2. David David says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction superforecasting ebok, science epub, prediction pdf, Superforecasting The book, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and kindle, The Art and Science of free, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookPhilip Tetlock is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania He is a co leader of the Good Judgment Project a long term forecasting study It is a fascinating project whose purpose is to imp


  3. Anton Anton says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction superforecasting ebok, science epub, prediction pdf, Superforecasting The book, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and kindle, The Art and Science of free, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBook5⭐️ What a great book It will definitely appeal to the fans of Thinking Fast and Slow Predictably Irrational The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions and The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly ImprobableThought provoking and full of very perceptive observations But I particularly would like to commend authors for how well this book is written This is an example of non fiction at its best There is definitely research and background science overview but each chapter is a proper story as well Philip E Tetlock andor his co author not sure who should take the credit are superb storytellers It was not only insightful but genuinely enjoyable to read this bookI usually read several books simultaneously one or two non fiction titles and a bunch of fiction stories But last week 'Superforecasting' monopolised my reading time And it is particularly telling how well it managed to trample competition from its f


  4. Elizabeth Theiss Elizabeth Theiss says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction superforecasting ebok, science epub, prediction pdf, Superforecasting The book, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and kindle, The Art and Science of free, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookWhen it comes to forecasting most pundits and professionals do little better than chimps with dartboards according to Phillip Tetlock who ought to know because he has spent a good deal of his life keeping track Tetlock has partnered with Dan Gardner an excellent science journalist to write this engaging book about the 2 percent of forecasters who manage to consistently outperform their peers Oddly consumers of forecasts generally do not reuire evidence of accuracy Few television networks or web sites score t


  5. Michael Michael says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction superforecasting ebok, science epub, prediction pdf, Superforecasting The book, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and kindle, The Art and Science of free, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookPhilip E Tetlock feels a bit too polite Sometimes it seems he is excusing wrong predictions by finding weasel words in them or interpreting them kindly instead of using the intended assertionJust say Thomas Friedman is a bad forecasterInstead of reading this book I recommend reading the books he referencesThinking Fast and Slow The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable and The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail But Some Don'tThis books feels like a superficial summary of the afore mentioned books and an attempt to com


  6. Andy Andy says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction superforecasting ebok, science epub, prediction pdf, Superforecasting The book, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and kindle, The Art and Science of free, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookThis book features some interesting trivia about Super forecasters but when it comes to explaining evidence based practice it was Super disappointing It starts off well with a discussion of Archie Cochrane and evidence based medicine EBM but then it bizarrely ignores the core concepts of EBM In EBM you look up what works and then use that info to help people instead of killing them But when Tetlock talks about social philanthropy he implies that it's evidence based as long as you rigorously evaluate what you're doing NO If your doctor gives you arsenic instead of antibiotics for your bacterial infection that's not OK even if he does lots of lab tests afterwards to see how you're progressing In EBM you focus


  7. John Kaufmann John Kaufmann says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction superforecasting ebok, science epub, prediction pdf, Superforecasting The book, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and kindle, The Art and Science of free, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookThis book was solid though perhaps not uite as good as I hopedexpected It was interesting reading full of interesting stories and examples The author doesn't prescribe a particular method superforecasting it appears is about a toolbox or set of guidelines that must be used and adapted based on the particular circumstances As a result at times I felt the author's thread was being lost or scattered; however upon reflection I realized it was part of the nature of making predictions On reflection his guidelines are clear and should be helpful even if they cannot provide a method for correct predictions 100% of the timeOne critiue I had was that the author didn't provide any statistical evidence of why the people he identified as superforecasters were good as opposed to lucky I continued to think some of the examples he gave were


  8. Pavlo Illiashenko Pavlo Illiashenko says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction superforecasting ebok, science epub, prediction pdf, Superforecasting The book, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and kindle, The Art and Science of free, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookHarry Truman famously said Give me a one handed economist All my economics say ''On the one hand on the other''Philip Tetlock combines three major findings from different areas of research1 People don't like experts who are context specific and could not provide us with clear simple answers regarding complex phenomena in a probabilistic world People don't like if an expert sounds not


  9. Tony Tony says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction superforecasting ebok, science epub, prediction pdf, Superforecasting The book, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and kindle, The Art and Science of free, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookI'm giving this a 4 even though I didn't complete it It's very well written and structured but I just decided half way through that the subject wasn't for meSome exceptional real world examples though


  10. Michal Mironov Michal Mironov says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction superforecasting ebok, science epub, prediction pdf, Superforecasting The book, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and kindle, The Art and Science of free, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookI usually rank my favorite books on a line between „extremely readable“ and „ very useful“ This one is probably among my Top 3 most useful books ever The other two are Kahneman's “Thinking Fast and Slow” and Taleb's “Black Swan” You don't have to agree on everything with the author but you still will get dozens of truly important facts that can fundamentally affect your life Don't be misguided by the title – you really have to read this book even if you don't have the ambition to predict stock prices or revolutions in the


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